Given the unusual number of vessels coming to grief recently around the English coast I started to research to see of there is anything significantly different about the weather this year so far. I wanted to know if it was on the way to being as bad as 2004/5 ?
It’s going to be a modestly more active than average Atlantic hurricane season in 2008, according to the December seasonal forecast issued by Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (CSU).
The forecasters examined the observed atmospheric conditions and ocean temperatures during the main hurricane months of October-November 2007 each year, and gave the years an ACE rating. ACE stands for Accumulated Cyclone Energy and is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed).
The key conditions for hurricanes are apparently:
1. A moderate La Nina event
2. Near average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
3. Warm far North Atlantic SSTs.
There is a table of years by descending ACE index here
So according to Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach 2008 should be only marginally worse than the average. ….hmmm…